In a recent interview with CNBC, Jon McNeill, former Tesla executive and one-time head of global sales, delivered a bullish outlook for the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market even as federal tax credits for EV purchases expire. According to McNeill, the industry is now mature enough to sustain growth on its own momentum.
Market Resilience Beyond Subsidies
McNeill points to patterns in Europe, particularly in France and Germany, where EV adoption continued its upward trajectory after government incentives were removed. He argues the same dynamic is beginning to take hold in the U.S., supported by the arrival of a wider range of EV models.
“The market’s established, and we’re probably ready to have a market that can grow without subsidies,” McNeill said, adding that the expansion of more affordable EVs is accelerating adoption.
According to data from auto analytics firm Motor Intelligence, EVs and hybrids already accounted for 20 percent of new vehicle sales in the U.S. in 2024. That share underscores rising consumer acceptance of electric mobility.
Tax Credit Phase-out and Industry Debate
Earlier this year, Congress passed the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” which ended several federal incentives for EV purchases. The $7,500 tax credit for new EVs and the $4,000 credit for used models officially expired on September 30.
The elimination of incentives has stirred debate within the auto industry. Tesla CEO Elon Musk argued the change may disproportionately disadvantage Tesla’s competitors in the short term, even if it could eventually benefit Tesla. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that EV sales could be cut in half without government support.
McNeill remains optimistic. He believes that growing consumer demand, more product variety, and increasingly competitive prices will sustain momentum in a post-incentive era.
What to Watch
- Consumer behavior and pricing trends: Will buyers absorb full costs without subsidies? McNeill believes they will, especially as lower-cost EVs hit the market in larger numbers.
- Manufacturer strategies: Automakers may need to adjust pricing, incentives, or financing to maintain competitiveness in a subsidy-free environment.
- Policy changes and state supports: Some states could introduce local incentives or regulations that favor EV adoption.
McNeill’s perspective highlights a key turning point. EVs are shifting from being primarily policy-driven to becoming part of mainstream automotive business. The next big test is whether the market can live up to those expectations.
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